It has been a while since I posted. Just like our stock market, I crashed! The reason being the market itself. I spent few days finding out the possible reasons and how worse it could get and guess what, I am still as optimistic as ever.
The sensex is down more than 5000 points compared to the highest level it attained towards the end of 2007. Evidently it is a big blow to the traders, investors, funds, IPO’s and most of all to the tempo in the country. The Finance Minister has been trying hard to keep the optimism levels from going down far too much by assuring that our growth rate for the coming FY08-09 is posed at a very promising rate of 8.75% (There has been many statements with a different rate each time, but this one seems to be the final projection).
Now, what really happened?
Recession in the US which is caused by words declared as used the most number of times last year – “subprime crisis”, lies at the root of the problems. In simple terms, ‘subprime’ means loan given to a person who is not eligible for it, because of his low creditworthiness, income or any other unhealthy financial situation. Ironically these loans are given to the same person at a rate higher than the market(reasoning- risk involved). Since US real estate valuations were blown out of proportion and were simply not affordable by subprimes, there developed a crisis. This in turn created lot of pressure in the banking industry that indulged in a lot of subprime borrowing and did not have enough funds to lend to businesses and other consumers who needed them for growth. So slowly the economy began to dip and then crashed. Businesses didnt do well and large number of employees were laid off. Incomes and consumer demand fell and since many countries in the world depend a lot upon the US, exports being the main share of their GDP, those economies also crashed. India was among the least affected as our exports to the US are comparatively less.
There is a reason why our stock market took some time to take the hit. Towards the end of 07, there was a lot of optimism in the our market due to large purchases by institutional buyers, foreign investors, excellent performances by some large cap and mid cap companies, promises and prospects reflected by the Government and a lot of hype. This lead to an illogical overvaluation of stock prices; illogical because they were high not as a result of the company doing well but as a result of speculation. It was like a bubble that had to burst at some point in time. After the Subprime, lot of American investors started pulling away their investments from other countries. This, in hand with the rising oil prices and blow to the software industry, in terms of declining projects, employee lay off and rupee value appreciation paved way to a much needed correction.
This is more or less like a world correction and a lot of people including me are still optimistic because our nation has all eyes focussed on development and stability. This is an opportunity to buy shares of promising companies.
Corrections like these are just nature’s way of telling us not to get carried away but to focus and do things the right way!
(to read more about subprime crisis check http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_Crisis )